IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.6	#153
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.2	#300
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.8	#120

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.3	#201

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	25.1%	34.0%	23.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.2	13.3	14.4

.500 or above	77.3%	92.7%	75.1%
.500 or above in Conference	83.0%	91.9%	81.8%
Conference Champion	33.0%	48.6%	30.8%
Last Place in Conference	2.7%	0.7%	2.9%

First Four	2.5%	0.9%	2.7%
First Round	24.1%	33.6%	22.8%
Second Round	2.5%	5.9%	2.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.6%	1.2%	0.5%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Away) - 12.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	4 - 5	5 - 8
Quad 4	14 - 4	18 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	50	@ Kansas St.	L	57-69	12%
Nov 11, 2019	327	Cal Poly	W	77-63	90%
Nov 15, 2019	230	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	74-70	66%
Nov 16, 2019	291	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	68-63	67%
Nov 17, 2019	196	Stony Brook	W	72-69	59%
Nov 23, 2019	236	Utah Valley	W	75-67	75%
Nov 26, 2019	338	@ Idaho	W	73-63	82%
Dec 03, 2019	158	@ Indiana St.	L	71-74	40%
Dec 07, 2019	71	East Tennessee St.	L	69-73	37%
Dec 11, 2019	208	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	77-76	52%
Dec 16, 2019	279	Montana St.	W	81-71	81%
Dec 20, 2019	27	@ Marquette	L	66-81	11%
Dec 29, 2019	305	@ Denver	W	74-68	69%
Jan 02, 2020	283	Western Illinois	W	76-65	82%
Jan 09, 2020	205	@ Oral Roberts	W	74-73	52%
Jan 15, 2020	165	South Dakota	W	72-68	63%
Jan 18, 2020	262	North Dakota	W	77-68	78%
Jan 22, 2020	224	@ South Dakota St.	W	76-75	53%
Jan 25, 2020	305	Denver	W	77-65	84%
Jan 30, 2020	283	@ Western Illinois	W	73-68	65%
Feb 01, 2020	241	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	W	77-75	57%
Feb 05, 2020	195	@ Nebraska Omaha	L	73-74	50%
Feb 08, 2020	205	Oral Roberts	W	76-70	70%
Feb 14, 2020	241	Purdue Fort Wayne	W	80-72	75%
Feb 19, 2020	165	@ South Dakota	L	69-71	43%
Feb 22, 2020	262	@ North Dakota	W	74-71	60%
Feb 27, 2020	224	South Dakota St.	W	79-72	71%
Feb 29, 2020	195	Nebraska Omaha	W	76-70	69%
Projected Record						17 - 11	10 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Summit League Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.4	2.8	6.6	8.7	8.1	4.8	1.5		33.0	1st
2nd									0.0	0.6	4.2	6.8	5.7	2.2	0.3				19.8	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.7	3.7	6.1	3.2	0.6	0.0					14.3	3rd
4th							0.0	0.5	3.3	4.8	1.7	0.2							10.5	4th
5th						0.0	0.4	2.8	3.7	1.3	0.1	0.0							8.3	5th
6th					0.0	0.3	1.8	2.8	0.8	0.1									5.7	6th
7th				0.0	0.2	1.3	2.0	0.6	0.0										4.2	7th
8th			0.1	0.3	0.9	1.0	0.5	0.0											2.8	8th
9th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.0												1.5	9th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.6	2.8	4.6	6.7	8.5	10.4	12.5	13.0	12.9	10.9	8.4	4.8	1.5			Total

Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	1.5		1.5
15-1	100.0%	4.8		4.7	0.1
14-2	96.0%	8.1		7.1	0.9	0.0
13-3	79.5%	8.7		6.0	2.5	0.2
12-4	51.3%	6.6		3.4	2.7	0.6	0.0
11-5	21.8%	2.8		0.8	1.2	0.8	0.1	0.0
10-6	3.5%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
9-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	33.0%	33.0		23.4	7.5	1.7	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	1.5%		68.8%	66.9%	1.8%	11.6					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.5		5.6%
15-1	4.8%		60.7%	60.4%	0.4%	12.8						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.8	1.0	0.7	0.2	0.0	1.9		0.9%
14-2	8.4%		50.3%	50.0%	0.3%	13.5										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.7	1.3	1.6	0.6	0.0	4.2		0.5%
13-3	10.9%		39.6%	39.6%		14.1												0.0	0.2	0.9	1.6	1.2	0.3	6.6
12-4	12.9%		33.2%	33.2%		14.5												0.0	0.1	0.6	1.4	1.6	0.6	8.6
11-5	13.0%		24.6%	24.6%		15.0													0.0	0.1	0.6	1.4	1.1	9.8
10-6	12.5%		17.5%	17.5%		15.3														0.1	0.2	0.9	1.0	10.3
9-7	10.4%		12.6%	12.6%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9	9.1
8-8	8.5%		9.9%	9.9%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	7.7
7-9	6.7%		8.1%	8.1%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.5	6.2
6-10	4.6%		3.6%	3.6%		16.0																0.0	0.2	4.5
5-11	2.8%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																0.0	0.0	2.8
4-12	1.6%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.0	1.6
3-13	0.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.8
2-14	0.3%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0																	0.0	0.3
1-15	0.1%																							0.1
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		25.1%	25.1%	0.1%	14.2					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	2.0	4.3	6.4	6.3	5.3	74.9		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	4.4				84.8	6.1	6.1				3.0